Free PDF The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
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The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
Free PDF The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90-percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prize-winning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move.
From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E).
Looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming and terror.
But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isn't just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit, elect the CEO of your company, or even buy a car.
Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer's Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life's a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 9 hours and 32 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Random House Audio
Audible.com Release Date: September 29, 2009
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B002QX7SHM
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
The reviews by Brown, McDonald and Bertolo are spot on.It is entertaining but you won't become knowledgeable in game theory or an expert predictioner from reading it. The book leaves a lot to be desired. It doesn't properly explain game theory or how to deal with uncertainty and is mostly about himself with claims that the claims are substantiated, but are not.If you are only interested in examples and don't want to go deeply into the subject to learn how, maybe this book is for you. Some people like it a lot, and some see its flaws, so check out other reviews.Essentially (behind the missing explanations) he has parameters for1. the influence of key players,2. The relevant importance of those players to the outcome, called salience3. The probability that that influence and importance will be effective towards or against a particular outcome4. The rules of the game (eg voting power)5 Iterations that may occur which will affect who has what changed influence or importanceThese have different roles or relevance to different problems and may not all be present in a given situation..There are other books whose reviews you should check to see if they are more suitable' ....Depending on your needs they are3.5* game theory -non-technical introductionhttp://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0486296725/ref=pe_1205900_124795750_em_1p_2_ti4.5* the signal and the noisehttp://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159420411X/ref=pe_1205900_124795750_em_1p_3_ti3.5* Rock, paper scissorshttp://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0465009387/ref=pe_1205900_124795750_em_1p_0_ti4* What money can't buyhttp://www.amazon.com/What-Money-Cant-Buy-Markets/dp/0374533652/ref=pd_sim_b_6?ie=UTF8&refRID=14ASP9F9WTDAY1FYJ4JV4.5* Naked statisticshttp://www.amazon.com/Naked-Statistics-Stripping-Dread-Data/dp/039334777X/ref=pd_cp_b_05.5* A practical guide to policy analysishttp://www.amazon.com/Practical-Guide-Policy-Analysis-Eightfold/dp/1608718425/ref=pd_bxgy_b_text_y
It's hard to fully regret reading a book. Hey even if it sucks, you still got SOMETHING out of it, no matter how small, right?This is sort of how I feel after reading The Predictioneer's Game. The author has a few good ideas here and there, but I don't think it's really worth buying and reading. After all, there's an opportunity cost as well - when you're reading this book, you could be reading a much better book and learning a lot more.The author seems fairly intelligent and has some good ideas on how to approach problems. But 3 things kept bothering me as I read this: 1) the incessant self promotion (some colleagues say I'm magical, I've never made a bad prediction, my consulting team is always being called on to help make decisions..etc, 2) the frequent mentions of this magical model that is never fully explained, and 3) the feeling I got as I continued to read that half of this was BS.On the one hand he always refers to the model and only going by what the model says, but in example after example he gives mostly common sense reasoning behind his predictions and what he advised. It's like someone who claims to have psychic ability, yet in all of their predictions they give common sense reasons for why something is going to happen.I think if you took away all the self promotion crap, and references to the suspect model, you might actual have a decent book with some interesting ideas. Then again that book would probably only be about 25 pages long.Bottom line: this book comes off as a sales pitch to hire the author as a consultant. He gives you enough information to impress you and gain his trust, but not enough to warrant reading a book. I'm sure he's a smart guy, but I'm not convinced in the model and I really didn't take away much from the book either.
I had to use "Game Theory" for a semester long paper where I had to write 15 page sections and a presentation every 2 weeks in my "Comparative Politics" class. At the end of the semester when I gave my last presentation, I had to admitt that some of my initial hypotheses were wrong after doing the deep research and applying "Game Theory." BBM's game theory allows a person to prove him or herself wrong by using social science and math. Yet, if the person is able to to accept that the research and game theory has proven his or her initial hypotheses wrong, the person has a 90% chance of being right. BBM's are always entertaining due to his witty sense of humor as well.
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